'Intelligent discontent is the mainspring of civilization.' -- Eugene V. Debs

Thursday, November 13, 2008

How Bad Is It? 

Pretty bad, if you believe what blunt spoken retail business analyst Howard Davidovitz says during this interview:

10% unemployment next year, that will, according to Davidovitz, feel like a depression, four consecutive quarters of negative GDP, with at least two of them -5%, and beyond that . . . ?

Davidovitz doesn't know, because his economists, which he claims are very good ones, and anticipated much of what has transpired to date, can't see beyond the end of next year. But, he reassures us, they will have a better idea by late spring or early summer. As will the rest of us, undoubtedly. The word that he most frequently associates with retailers is liquidation instead of consolidation, something that we will hear in relation to much of the rest of the economy as well. Just another indication that neo-Clintonism is not going to get it done.

Hat tip to Calculated Risk.

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